Second Berlin Conference on Libya: Where to from here?

Outlet: Atlantic Council

Language: English

Abstract: The Second Berlin Conference on Libya, held on June 23, 2021, aimed to build upon the foundation laid by the initial summit in 2019. However, the recent conference fell short of expectations due to a lack of robust political will and an effective roadmap for Libya's future. Unlike the previous conference attended by heads of states, this one saw lower-ranking ministerial representatives, signaling a potential decrease in political interest. Nonetheless, the participation of the Libyan Government of National Unity (GNU) indicated international recognition of its legitimacy. The conference reiterated calls for the removal of foreign military support and fighters from Libya, emphasizing the importance of upcoming elections in December 2021. However, it failed to address nuanced strategies for dealing with different foreign military groups, particularly Turkey's legitimate presence, leading to ambiguity and potential complications. Moreover, the conference lacked concrete international guarantees and mitigation strategies against violators, especially regarding the upcoming elections, which risk exacerbating conflict without proper safeguards. The absence of a national constitution further complicates the electoral process, highlighting the need for a unified security force and a clearer path forward for Libya's political system. Ultimately, while elections pose risks, they may offer the best opportunity for stability and legitimacy, provided they are conducted transparently and with the participation of all stakeholders.

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