New fault lines that define the Middle East

Outlet: Arab News

Language: English

Abstract: The Middle East has experienced a shift in power dynamics away from domination by superpowers to regional capitals pursuing dominance and economic interests. Conflict now revolves around realpolitik strategies, with regional actors shaping the landscape. Despite concerns over chaos after US disengagement, conflicts are becoming smaller and more localized, influenced by regional sponsors. These conflicts, aimed at influencing diplomacy rather than gaining territory, allow states to maintain control and protect their interests. Although settlement processes may be prolonged, the reduced likelihood of all-out war offers a semblance of stability amid regional rivalries. As new polarities emerge, such as the Gulf states, the Ankara-Doha alliance, and the ‘Shiite crescent,’ the Middle East navigates a complex yet potentially less volatile future shaped by regional dynamics rather than external interventions.

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